Playing from Behind: The Story of the Joe Philbin-led Dolphins

[ONole1]

I saw this on FH and figure I would put it up over here. I am not sure I have seen a better article with stats that back my concerns about Philbin and Lazor...WOW is all I have to say.

Since coming to town in 2012, in 48 games played by the Dolphins (no playoff trips) they have led after the first quarter in just 12 games (25%). NO TEAM has done worse. Even the lowly Titans and Jets have led after one quarter in 13 games, and the Raiders have done it in 14. Hell, even the Jaguars have led after one quarter in 17 games since 2012.
Its not their only problem. On 3rd and short, the Dolphins converted 70% of their runs into first downs, 11th best in the NFL. The problem was they passed on 52% of their play calls, 9th most often, and they converted just 55% of their pass attempts. So they missed out on 15% better efficiency by simply not running enough on 3rd and short.
It gets even worse when considering the field position. Last year in opponent’s territory (on the other side of midfield) the Dolphins had 27 plays on 3rd and 1-2 yards. These are VITAL downs, and can be the difference between 0 and 3 points (if closer to midfield) or 3 and 7 points (if closer to the red zone). Only 3 teams had MORE of these play calls, meaning they were big difference makers for the Dolphins in 2014.
On these plays, the NFL average was 57% run, 43% pass. Yet on these plays, Philbin had the Dolphins call 15 passes and 12 runs, or 56% pass and 44% run, flipping the ratio. On the 15 pass plays, the Dolphins gained only 7 first downs (47%). On the 12 run plays, the Dolphins gained 8 first downs (67%).

Eye opening article...

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/joe-philbin-went-to-miami

[DolphinsFreak]

Depressing. I wonder if the Redskins game makes 13, not wait, the Dolphins were behind yet again after the 1st quarter. Philbin is a nice guy but I am not sure he is head coaching material. I think Lazor came into Miami with a ton of hype because of Chip Kelly but Chip Kelly he is not. His offensive schemes and playbook are mediocre at best. Coyle? He shouldn't be a DC in the NFL, period. He lacks creativity and doesn't know how to play each player to their strengths. Also, Coach Philbin is an o-line coach and this offensive line has been a complete and utter disaster since he's been the head coach. Not much has changed from the time he was hired until now. It's hard to develop an early 1st quarter lead when your quarterback in the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, for the entire time he has been the head coach. News Flash, if you don't build an offensive line you will NEVER see the playoffs because it's hard to score points when your QB is on his back half the time, and you definitely can run either if this is the case.

[Finatic]

Hard to imagine that our coaching talent is as good as our on field talent. Queasy Joe is on thin ice especially after such a poor showing last week.

[ONole1]

Now, I will say that I am sure part of this is because when ever Miami wins the toss they deffer, but I am not sure of the stats for all of it.

I agree with both of you and while Miami has some deficiencies at positions they have enough talent and very good talent in many areas to win. I think Miami has NFL with college level coaches.

[Alpha]

New England also defers when they win the toss.

[DolphinsFreak]

I agree. I think Philbin probably should have been fired the same year he was FORCED to fire Sherman. In my opinion when Sherman came to Miami he basically took over the team. Any HEAD COACH that would allow that to happen shouldn't be the head coach. After it was obvious that the game had passed Sherman by he had to be fired. But, Philbin didn't want to do that, which was a huge red flag that went against his ability to lead. Then, after being forced to fire his friend, Philbin left Sherman's son-in-law and the rest of his Texas A&M staff in place. Why? What have they done to earn their jobs? This is an NFL team being coached by college ranked coaches as Nole stated. If they can't get their act together this season, with this group of talent, they ALL must be shown the door.

[Phintim Menace]

One of the things that jumps out at me is that we are .500 when leading after 1st qtr. Where as we are .500 after trailing the 1st qtr. and in fact a .500 team overall. So the "leading after 1st qtr" stat doesn't seem to make much difference for this team. I give the coaches credit for a very good 2nd half record so they make adjustments at halftime that are correct. But they also have to take the blame for not having the right game plan in the first place so that they have to adjust and play from behind.

[HndRkyaBong34]

This statistic tell me one thing, this coaching staff has no business leading a team.. We stil lack some true allstars on defense and offense but the most glaring need IMO is coaching players up along with inspirational motivators.. Philbin falls short... Sigh...prove me wrong Philbin!!!!! Go Dolphins!

[AquaXI]

Coyle sucks, Lazor is still an unproven coach and Philbin practices Nepotism. Why we don't go far as a team but the connections to Joe gets a paycheck big time.

[cuchulainn]

This is what leaped out at me...

Its not their only problem. On 3rd and short, the Dolphins converted 70% of their runs into first downs, 11th best in the NFL. The problem was they passed on 52% of their play calls, 9th most often, and they converted just 55% of their pass attempts. So they missed out on 15% better efficiency by simply not running enough on 3rd and short.
It gets even worse when considering the field position. Last year in opponent’s territory (on the other side of midfield) the Dolphins had 27 plays on 3rd and 1-2 yards. These are VITAL downs, and can be the difference between 0 and 3 points (if closer to midfield) or 3 and 7 points (if closer to the red zone). Only 3 teams had MORE of these play calls, meaning they were big difference makers for the Dolphins in 2014.
On these plays, the NFL average was 57% run, 43% pass. Yet on these plays, Philbin had the Dolphins call 15 passes and 12 runs, or 56% pass and 44% run, flipping the ratio. On the 15 pass plays, the Dolphins gained only 7 first downs (47%). On the 12 run plays, the Dolphins gained 8 first downs (67%).

I specifically recall Sherman stating that he wanted to run more, but that Philbin wanted to pass more when he was questioned about balance and run vs play calls. Lazor made some statement to that effect last season as well. Granted some of this could be a lack of trust in his OL or backs, but again Philbin and his coaches are picking the starters...

[DolphinsFreak]

The biggest thing that stands out to me is the fact that the Dolphins do like to differ the kickoff and they win the coin toss a lot, so if the opposing team gets the ball first they can run a great deal of the time off the clock. So, with that said, I wonder what the Dolphins 3RD QUARTER record is? Do the Dolphins score more points in the 3rd quarter then their opponents? If they differ the kickoffs more often then they should be scoring more then their opponents in the 3rd quarter, especially after making adjustments. If they don't score more then their opponents this theory goes right out the window because the Dolphins can't score less then their opponents in both the 1st quarter and 3rd quarter and expect to win enough games to matter.

[Idahomer]

I don't know if this is fact, but I remember reading or hearing something last year that Miami led the league in scoring in the 3rd qtr, or maybe it was in scoring on the opening drive of the 3rd qtr. So you make a good point.

[VAIDER5120]

Philbin has said multiple times that they need to get off to a fast start but they don't do it. It's like they take showers in liquid nitrogen before they hit the field. Philbin needs to learn to light fires under A$$es and INSPIRE. The sideline looked dead at Washington and so did the players on the field MOST of the time. It's time for Philbin to use his BIG BOY voice and lead men.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdsmD5uOE74

[cuchulainn]

Idahomer commented
1 day ago

I don't know if this is fact, but I remember reading or hearing something last year that Miami led the league in scoring in the 3rd qtr, or maybe it was in scoring on the opening drive of the 3rd qtr. So you make a good point.

In 2014, the Fins were:
#28 in 1st qtr scoring, just ahead of San Diego
#15 in 2nd qtr
#1 in 3rd qtr
#22 in 4th qtr