Tannehill- Do Or Die In 2016?

[So Be]

Ryan Tannehill had a bad year in 2015, and no coherent Phan will dispute that. The team was not completely sold on his being the answer last year as evidenced by the contract, which gives us a reasonable out after this season. So, what does this mean for 2016?

IMO, the team will do everything possible to make RT the answer this year. The option is replacing him, and starting anew. Not a good thing for Ross. He did show a steady improvement for 3 years. Maybe last year was an aberration which happens to many a player. We can only hope.

I believe that Gase was the choice as much, if not more so, because of RT. He has his work cut out for him, and I'm thinking that he will do better than what Tannehill has had in four years. We shall see. They both have considerable weapons at the skill positions to start with Parker, Landry, and Stills.

Next, Tannenbaum has to chime in heavily in his signings. He has to spend on the OL and cannot wait for players to develop. I now believe that he will sign a VG OG. Not sure what he will do at OT, depending on Albert, but fully expect a substantial upgrade. I believe he will do his best to keep Miller, who worked well wit RT in running, receiving, and blocking. Not sure on Cameron, as he did not really click with Tannehill but, was abused in his usage.

This plan may take a bit from the signings and plans on D but, don't think it will matter all that much.

Tannehill was the "Chosen One." IF he still is, after this season, we are in good shape. JMO

[Alpha]

I actually do dispute that. He had a bad year compared to the very lofty expectations we had (which were unrealistic in many ways about many players, coaches and the team in general - right?) That said - at the start of the year if I'd told you Tannehill would pass for 4200+ yards and twice as many TDs as INTs would you have considered that bad? No other Dolphin QB in history other than Marino has put up those numbers.

Tannehill had an inconsistent year behind a horrible OL and with a D that folded more often than it stepped up to make plays. I do think 2016 will be a make or break for him and I think we'll end up going a different direction. We'll bring in a new "the one", we'll all hope and pray we're right and fight about it for the next few years.

Meanwhile, if Tannehill ends up on a decent team with a good OL, we'll get to see what he really could do with better coaching and talent around him. I personally still think the guy will be very good....just not in Miami.

[So Be]

As much as I enjoy stats, the ones for RT this year are no reflection on his play. JMO

[Alpha]

I think one stat is very telling. There was one quarterback in the NFL with a better QBR that was sacked more than Tannehill - Aaron Rogers (who is always in the conversation of the best QB in football). He had an "off year" with poor protection. So did Luck. Maybe those guys are just not good QBs and are in decline? I'd tend to say no QB is really good without a good OL.

The outlier however is Russell Wilson who was sacked the same amount....but he is known for freelancing, extending plays....and he'll take a sack rather than throw a ball that could be picked. Also significant is that Wilson has the #1 D in the NFL (again). All those short fields and extra possessions make for more TDs and a higher QBR.

Guys like Fitzpatrick were raved about all year....but he was sacked 26 times less than Tannehill! Everyone has gone on and on about the emergence of Andy Dalton. He was sacked 25 times less than Tannehill. Kirk Cousins emerged as a potential future star. 19 less sacks than Tannehill.

With OLs like that (and better D's as well), its a lot easier to make plays and win games.

[cuchulainn]

IMO, people like to think that Tannehill is overly inconsistent. He isn't really as it's not a coincidence that he plays his best games when the offensive line actually gives him time to scan the field. We saw it against the Giants, and we saw it in the last game against the Pats.

Given the issues with the OL that we had ALL season starting with Albert, then James, then Pouncey, plus the poor play of Dallas Thomas, Jamil Douglas, and Billy Turner. Most of the time, the OL is bad, and when they decide to not be dog shat, he has a very good game - like the last one against the Pats defense.

Tannehill has things he needs to improve upon without a doubt, but he's perfectly capable of winning games as long as the rest of the offense does their part and he has a competent coaching staff that actually knows what they're doing.

The Fins Org/team hasn't placed a premium on protecting Tannehill. Philbin cast him out there to sink or swim and as bad as he's looked at times, there's too much evidence to suggest that Tannehill is capable of great things when he's got time to drop back, read the field, and deliver the ball.

Conversely, there's overwhelming evidence of how important pass protection is in general, in relation to how well a QB performs. Whether it's the fall from grace that Andrew Luck experienced in the eyes of media/fans in 2015, to the rise of Dalton and Newton ( who have the 7th and 4th ranked best pass protecting OLs) in the eyes of media/fans. You can't turn on a sports related TV/radio show today without hearing about Rodgers and Brady's inability to succeed in the face over constant and overwhelming pressure. Yet, nobody seems to care that Tannehill has dealt with those same offensive line limitations his entire career. Sacks, hits, pressures, etc... Tannehill has never had a season without that kind of adversity.

Last year he finished with a 93 QBR, this year he finished with an 89 QBR. He's limited his INT's to 12 in back to back years, which is a really good number considering he was among league leaders in pass attempts for his 4th straight year. Along the way, he has set a franchise record for most attempts w/o an INT (He almost accomplished that as a rookie, BTW, so that isn't a fluke). Set an NFL record for consecutive competitions. At one point in 2015, he was trailing only Brady for most consecutive games with multiple TD passes. Last year, he became the first QB since Vick to have 4 straight games of 40+ yards rushing (finished 5 yards away from 5 straight). All of this doesn't mean a whole lot on a team that has missed the playoffs every season since 08, but it helps demonstrate why he isn't the main problem with this team or offense.

Tannehill is not elite, but at his worst, he has shown over the last 3 seasons that he is a high floor QB. He's going to throw 20+ TD's, 4,000 yards, 60+ % completion, and limit his INT's to around a dozen or so. He isn't going to make a ton of mistakes. He's not going to make a ton bad reads and bad throws. And he can/does flash high ceiling ability. Now that we know his floor, the question is now, what's his ceiling? This is why hiring a HC like Gase is so important to the Org and to Tannehill - or the future QB who replaces him.

It's encouraging to see guys like Andy Dalton and Cam Newton step up in the way they have in their 5th seasons. Both QB's had top OL production/pass protection in 2015, something which neither have had previously. And Both QB's took huge leaps in their passing games. On the flip side, Andrew Luck's fall from grace is also encouraging, in another way. With an offensive line that's as bad as Miami's, Luck produced 17 TD's, 15 INT's, 55% completion, and 6.4 YPA behind a OL the likes of what Tannehill has been dealing with for several seasons.

Fix the offensive line and I feel good about Miami's offense and the future of Tannehill staying the Starting QB.

Do agree though. If he can't take the next step under Gase, he has to go.

[So Be]

In 2012, Tannehill was sacked 35 times. He had Bush, Hartline, Bess, and Fasano at skill positions with Sherman as OC. I thought he had a VG rookie year.

In 2013, he was sacked 58 times. He had Miller, Hartline, Wallace, and Clay at skill positions with Sherman as OC. I thought he showed improvement in his 2nd year.

In 2014, he was sacked 46 times. He had Miller, Wallace, Landry, and Clay at skill positions with Lazor as OC. I thought he showed improvement in his 3rd year.

I(n 2015, he was sacked 45 times. He had Miller, Landry, Matthews/Parker, and Cameron at skill positions. I thought he showed no improvement and took a step backwards.

We have all pointed to surrounding talent, specifically OL, and coaching as reasons Tannehill was not better than he was. However myself, and many others were pretty happy with his development in the first three years. For me, with the same problems, I have to point the finger at Tannehill just having a bad year in 2015. It happens to almost all QB's, and I do hope and expect him to come back from this to have a VG 2016. IF not, we have a problem.

IF the team did not have to make a very important contract decision on RT after 2016, it may be different. That is not the case. They cannot afford to pay him franchise QB money if he does show much more this year than last year.

Putting stats aside, he has to show the ability to be a top ten QB with the "IT factor" which many understand, and overcome surrounding talent. IF he cannot, he is not worth keeping his contract.

[Driven_Phinsane!]

God, it's refreshing to hear a stats guy say (admit?) that stats don't tell the whole picture, lol...Hopefully Tannehill has legit competition this year and no doubt this is do-or-die, as well it should be!!...

[So Be]

IMO. Tannehill has had pretty much the same problems since 2012 and improved in the first three years. I did not lay anything on him until last year. I've seen guys like Luck and Rivers (to name a few) overcoming the same problems, maybe worse, and still making plays. RT has not to be able to do the same to a degree, as he is not as good as either but maybe can be close.

Here's a fair question brought up by a gambling friend. You bet on a team to just win and they are ahead by 6 with about 2 minutes to g, and the other team gets the ball. How many QB's scare the hell out of you in losing your bet? Is Tannehill among them?

[cuchulainn]

God, it's refreshing to hear a stats guy say (admit?) that stats don't tell the whole picture, lol...Hopefully Tannehill has legit competition this year and no doubt this is do-or-die, as well it should be!!...

Well, we can always bring in QBs who were lobbied for like Weeden, RG-ME and Alkie-ziel as competition now...

Hoping to see something from Logan Thomas in the way of pushing Moore off the roster. Still puzzled why we promoted Thomas to the roster to keep the Bengals from taking him as to date Thomas has shown nothing at this level.

[VAIDER5120]

Logan Thomas said that he wanted to be in Miami and thinks he can push RT as a backup. For what its worth.

[cuchulainn]

IMO. Tannehill has had pretty much the same problems since 2012 and improved in the first three years. I did not lay anything on him until last year. I've seen guys like Luck and Rivers (to name a few) overcoming the same problems, maybe worse, and still making plays. RT has not to be able to do the same to a degree, as he is not as good as either but maybe can be close.

Here's a fair question brought up by a gambling friend. You bet on a team to just win and they are ahead by 6 with about 2 minutes to g, and the other team gets the ball. How many QB's scare the hell out of you in losing your bet? Is Tannehill among them?

A couple years back Tanny made this huge play, almost by himself, against the Ravens. We were down by a couple points. He had 2 INCs to Wallace, then Clay dropped a 1st down. It's 4th and 10 and Tanny scrambles left, then tosses a 46 yarder deep left to Gibson. A really fantastic clutch play to get us to the Ravens 34 yard line. We needed about 10 more yards for a field goal.

Then Clabo whiffs on Suggs and Tannehill gets sacked. Clay drops the ball on 2nd down. Sturgis misses the FG and the Ravens win.

That sequence is the best possible short version of Tannehill's career. He's made some really nice plays from time to time - this team just never rewards him for it.

The Panthers game in 2013 with the amazing deep hail Mary pass that he made possible by scrambling around and buying time for Wallace to get deep - only to have Wallace let the ball go thru his hands. The comeback against the Packers that our defense blew in the closing minutes. The ''Ice'' game against Pittsburgh where he took over the game by scrambling and making things happen and Clay actually made a play for him as well to score. Last year, he went back and forth with Manning in Denver all game but the defense never made a single damned play in the 4th qtr. Then he threw what should have been the game winner to Clay in Detroit last year, but of course Clay lost it by not securing it before the defender could knock it out of his hands, then the defense gave up the game winning td drive in the final seconds in a game we should have won...

Tannehill deserves a better team IMO. So glad Cautious Joe and his ''stay in the pocket and throw the ball 50 times a game'' BS is gone. Really expecting nice things from Gase and Tannehill together - but as I said, he can't shine under Gase with Grier running the FA and draft this time - he needs to go.

YMMV.